Forbes blogger Alex Knapp reviewed Ray Kurzweil’s predictions for 2009 from his 1999 book, “The Age of Spiritual Machines.” Without simply copying and pasting his assessments, he basically found that out of what he found were the twelve key predictions, only one prediction was entirely accurate, four were partially there, and the remaining seven failed. After some scoring, he claims to have given Kurzweil a 25% success rate. And that was what he dubbed a “generous” 25% score.
As I was in the middle of reviewing my Age of Spiritual Machines book, Kurzweil himself b-slapped the Forbes blogger and corrected him before anyone else could. Nobody could’ve said it better than the man himself:
“Overall, Knapp’s analysis of these prediction is based on his own unresearched and incomplete impressions and biased judgments. But the real measure of the accuracy of my predictions is to look at all of the predictions, not just a small subset of them.”
As it turns out, Kurzweil has meticulously tracked his own prediction process anyways: http://www.kurzweilai.net/how-my-predictions-are-faring-an-update-by-ray-kurzweil.